Metrics

ReformUK.org uses metrics to track progress. Clicking on an item in the table below will take you to the respective section of this page. The figures are correct as of 6 July 2024, two days after the last general election/by-election.

Descriptions

Constituency Spoilt-ballot-paper Percentage (CSP)

In any one constituency, the CSP for that constituency is the percentage of spoilt ballot papers out of all ballot papers cast (according to published figures). The stacked bar chart below gives an illustrated example of what might happen to ballot papers in a constituency at a House of Commons election (general election or by-election). The red block, labelled "Papers not claimed", results from those in the electoral population not having registered to vote. "Papers claimed but not cast" represents those in the electoral population who are registered to receive a ballot paper but who choose not to cast it. Using the bar chart, ReformUK.org uses the following formula to define CSP:

CSP = (AMBER / (AMBER + GREEN)) x 100

ReformUK.org uses the CSP metric as a guide to determine the minimum Constituency Vote Share (CVS) that a ReformUK.org candidate could expect to achieve. Furthermore, ReformUK.org uses the CSP metric in its plan and in its targets.

Example use of Ballot Papers by the Electoral Population in a Constituency

CSP Percentage Increase (CSPPI)

The CSPPI is the percentage increase of the CSP. For any one constituency, the CSPPI is calculated using the last two CSP figures, whether from two general elections, a general election and a by-election, or two by-elections.

The last CSP is divided by the second-to-last CSP, and the result is then multiplied by 100. This gives the CSPPI.

For any given constituency, the CSPPI can only be calculated if that constituency's boundary has not changed for the last two elections for that constituency.

The CSPPI metric communicates to us, for a particular constituency, to what extent the CSP has increased, from the second-to-last constituency election to the last constituency election.

National Spoilt-ballot-paper Percentage (NSP)

This metric is similar to the CSP, but instead of using figures for one constituency in isolation, it uses figures for the whole of the UK. To calculate the NSP, ReformUK.org first defines two numbers:

1. Parliament Spoilt Ballot papers (PSB). This is the total number of spoilt ballot papers that were cast at the 650 constituency elections that elected the 650 MPs. Each MP may have been elected at a general election or a by-election.

2. Parliament Votes (PV). This is the total number of votes that were cast (for all candidates) at the 650 constituency elections that elected the 650 MPs. Each MP may have been elected at a general election or a by-election.

ReformUK.org then calculates the NSP using the following formula:

NSP = (PSB / (PSB + PV)) x 100

The NSP metric communicates, for the 650 MPs in question, the level of support (of the ballot papers cast) for spoiling ballot papers.

Constituency Vote Share (CVS)

For any given constituency election (at a general election or by-election), this is a candidate's share of the votes (according to published figures). To calculate the CVS for a ReformUK.org candidate, the number of (reported) votes cast for the ReformUK.org candidate is divided by the total number of votes cast at that constituency election. The answer is then multiplied by 100 to give the CVS, which is a percentage.

The CVS metric allows ReformUK.org to compare, for any one of its candidates, their level of support in votes. This is the metric that is used to determine whether or not electoral deposits are refunded. (The refund threshold, at the time of writing, is 5 %.) This metric is used in the ReformUK.org Plan.

Parliament Mandate Percentage (PMP)

To calculate the PMP, ReformUK.org first defines two numbers:

1. Parliament ReformUK.org Votes (PRV). This is the total number of votes that were cast for ReformUK.org candidates at the 650 constituency elections that elected the 650 MPs. Each MP may have been elected at a general election or a by-election.

2. Parliament Electoral Population (PEP). This is the sum of the electoral-population figures for the 650 constituency elections that elected the 650 MPs. For each constituency election, an estimated 83 % of the constituency's electoral population formed the constituency's electorate i.e. those who were registered to receive a ballot paper in time for that election. To convert from the electorate number to the electoral-population number, we divide the former by 0.83.

The PMP is then calculated using the following formula:

PMP = (PRV / PEP) x 100

Number of Red Constituencies (ReCs)

A red constituency is defined as one that passes through one of the two red arrows on the flow chart, which can be found on the "Plan" page of this website. In words, a red constituency is one that meets one of the following two conditions:

1. At the last election for this constituency, no ReformUK.org candidate stood for election AND the CSP was less than 10 %.

2. At the last election for this constituency, a ReformUK.org candidate stood for election AND the ReformUK.org CVS was less than 10 %.

Each condition corresponds with one of the red arrows on the flow chart.

ReCs is the total number of red constituencies across the UK.

Number of Amber Constituencies (AmCs)

An amber constituency is defined as one that passes through one of the two amber arrows on the flow chart, which can be found on the "Plan" page of this website. In words, an amber constituency is one that meets one of the following two conditions:

1. At the last election for this constituency, no ReformUK.org candidate stood for election AND the CSP was at least 10 %.

2. At the last election for this constituency, a ReformUK.org candidate stood for election AND achieved a CVS of at least 10 % AND was not elected.

Each condition corresponds with one of the amber arrows on the flow chart.

AmCs is the total number of amber constituencies across the UK.

Number of Green Constituencies (GrCs)

A green constituency is defined as one that passes through the green arrow on the flow chart, which can be found on the "Plan" page of this website. In words, a green constituency is one for which a ReformUK.org candidate was elected at the last election for this constituency.

GrCs is the total number of green constituencies across the UK.

Figures

CSPs

The top three constituencies by CSP are:

1. Chorley, 3.41 %

2. Sheffield South East, 2.18 %

3. Cheltenham, 1.95 %

CSPPIs

The top three constituencies by CSPPI (of the 65 constituencies whose boundaries did not change for the 2024 general election) are:

1. Epping Forest; 350.2 %

2. Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton; 195.4 %

3. Bradford West; 194.5 %

NSPs

The NSPs for the last four general elections are:

• 2024; 0.40 %

• 2019; 0.37 %

• 2017; 0.23 %

• 2015; 0.33 %

NSP by General-election Year

CVSs

For the 650 constituency elections that resulted in the current 650 MPs, we did not put forward any ReformUK.org candidates. Therefore the ReformUK.org CVS metric cannot be calculated for any constituency.

PMP

For the 650 constituency elections that resulted in the current 650 MPs, we did not put forward any ReformUK.org candidates. Therefore, the PMP = 0 %.

ReCs, AmCs, and GrCs

ReCs = 650

AmCs = 0

GrCs = 0